Inequality in pandemic effects on school track placement and the role of social and academic embeddedness

Using register data and linked student-level sociometric survey data from the Netherlands, this study examines whether the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on schooling outcomes (track recommendation and track enrollment in the seventh and ninth grades) is conditional on students' academic and social embeddedness in the school setting. We estimated the counterfactual outcomes for the cohort that went through the school transition during the pandemic based on the outcomes of the pre-pandemic cohort, with similar earlier achievements, schools, and social backgrounds. Results show that the pandemic's effect on tracking outcomes is weaker than its effect on student test scores elsewhere reported. Nevertheless, the pandemic has had stronger adverse impact on disadvantaged students. Moreover, student self-efficacy, academic motivation, and parental involvement are related to more negligible negative pandemic effects on schooling outcomes. We find no evidence for an association between student grit or parental network centrality and the magnitude of estimated pandemic effects.