Changes in risk factors during adolescence: implications for risk assessment

This study examined to what extent the significance of both static and dynamic risk factors for recidivism changes in the course of adolescence. For this purpose, file and interview data of 1,396 juveniles charged with a criminal offense were analyzed. This study showed that the impact of almost all dynamic risk factors decreased as juveniles grew older. As a result, the predictive power of risk assessment models also decreased. From age 14, dynamic risk factors did not contribute significantly to the prediction of recidivism over static risk factors. Another consequence of the declining importance of dynamic risk factors is that the potential effect of an intervention aimed at these factors will also decrease as adolescents grow older, which indicates the importance of early intervention.