Het voorspellen van problematische opgroei- of opvoedingssituaties onderzoek naar de predictieve validiteit van het LIRIK en de ontwikkeling van een Actuarieel Risicotaxatie Instrument voor Jeugdbescherming (ARIJ)

The aim of this study was to examine whether return to youth protection is better predicted by using the light instrument for risk assessment of child maltreatment (Licht Instrument Risicotaxatie Kindveiligheid, LIRIK) or by using a newly-developed actuarial instrument. The sample consisted of 3963 Dutch children aged between 0 and 18 years (Mage = 9.12 years, SD = 5.35) and their parent(s) who were under the supervision of a Dutch child welfare agency (Jeugdbescherming Regio Amsterdam, JBRA) because of problematic child-rearing situations. Relapse was defined as resuming treatment by the JBRA as a result of newly-substantiated problematic child-rearing situations. The actuarial risk assessment instrument for youth protection (Actuarieel Risicotaxatie Instrument voor Jeugdbescherming, ARIJ) was developed by means of a CHAID analysis. The LIRIK performed no better than chance (AUC = 0.53). The predictive validity of the ARIJ was moderate (AUC = 0.63), but performed significantly better than the LIRIK. Further research should focus on how to improve the predictive validity of the ARIJ, particularly since the ARIJ has been implemented by multiple youth care organizations.