| Authors |
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| Publication date |
28-11-2013
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| Publisher |
London: VOX
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| Organisations |
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Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB) - Amsterdam School of Economics Research Institute (ASE-RI)
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| Abstract |
The sustainability of government debt cannot be determined with certainty. This column presents an early warning indicator to predict sovereign debt crises using a stochastic simulation framework. What counts is the risk of a significant rise in public debt, more so than the expected evolution of the debt level. A key determinant of the indicator is the quality of budgetary policies in controlling the government budget in the event of adverse shocks.
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| Document type |
Web publication or website
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| Language |
English
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| Published at |
http://www.voxeu.org/article/debt-crises-forewarned-stochastics-matter
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