The Rocky Road of Israeli-Saudi Normalization

Saudi Arabia has long maintained informal ties with Israel in various domains while also pushing for a negotiated solution to the Palestinian issue. As the latter has fallen on deaf ears of various Israeli governments, Riyadh has basically accepted Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territories in the sense of not resisting it. After the Abraham Accords of 2020, Mohammed bin Salman started to negotiate a normalization agreement with Israel via the U.S. that intends to deliver a range of American-sponsored security benefits to the Kingdom in exchange for full diplomatic relations. The destruction of Gaza halted the completion of this process. However, this is not because Mohammed bin Salman or the Saudi ruling elites care greatly about the Palestinian cause, but because doing so would be domestically unpopular and risk Saudi Arabia’s standing in the Arab as well as Islamic worlds. As Riyadh has at best mounted an ineffective form of ‘conference diplomacy’ to protest the carnage in Gaza, which is devoid of tangible pressure on Israel, it is quite possible that normalization talks resume as soon as headlines fade or a cease-fire agreement proves to be lasting, and a watery compromise on the future of the Palestinian issue is agreed.