The bi-directional relationship between perceived populist ad exposure and trust in democracy during an election campaign

In an era where populist rhetoric increasingly shapes political discourse, understanding its impact on democratic trust is crucial. This study examines the bi-directional or reciprocal relationship between perceived exposure to populist advertisements and trust in democracy during the 2024 Belgian Federal election campaign. Using a longitudinal design across three waves with a final W3 sample size of 891 participants, it explores how populist ads, characterized by anti-elitist and emotional messaging, influence democratic trust, and how declining trust in democracy increases exposure to such ads. The analysis, based on a Random Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Model (RI-CLPM), shows that higher perceived exposure to populist ads leads to a decline in trust in democracy over time, while lower trust in democratic institutions increases subsequent perceived exposure to populist ads. These findings reveal a reinforcing spiral, where populist communication fuels further distrust, posing a potential threat to democratic stability. The study emphasizes the importance of addressing how populist messaging can gradually undermine the authoritative and legitimate status of democratic institutions by fueling distrust.