Across the Sloping Meadow Floor An Empirical Analysis of Detention of Deportable Non-Citizens

In many countries, the law permits state authorities to detain non-citizens who have pending deportation orders. As a measure against the right of liberty, international law, the EU legal framework and states establish a number of procedural safeguards, such as legal aid and judicial review. Typically the judicial decision about detention must be made within a short period of time during which deportable non-citizens are held in police premises, and depending on the country detention may last just one month (e.g., France) or up to 18 months (the Netherlands). While previous research has explored various dimensions of non-citizen detention including the legal procedure, health consequences, the condition of detention centers, and the lives of deportable non-citizens, the empirical assessment of the determinants of decisions on deportation are largely unexplored. Using data from court proceedings of police petitions of detention and a quantitative strategy, in this paper we undertake an empirical analysis of non-citizen detention combining personal background of deportable non-citizens, legal factors of the case, and the behavior of different actors involved in the procedure. To do it, we fit multilevel logistic regression models that take into account variation occurred at both court and judicial district levels. Results indicate, on the one hand, that relevant actors involved in the procedure use different informational cues to decide on cases. On the other hand, the role of attorneys during hearings proves also relevant to predict detention.