Essays on macroeconomic uncertainty and on the effects of regulatory incentives in the euro area

This thesis consists of three empirical chapters, which, deploying different methodologies from the fields of applied macro-econometrics and micro-econometrics, share the common objective of deriving policy implications on current important issues for the euro area. In a world of unprecedented uncertainty and with major regulatory changes after the Global Financial Crisis and the euro-area debt crisis, it is important to investigate how policies affect the economy and, in particular, how they can mitigate the impact of adverse shocks.
The first two chapters of the thesis center the analysis on issues related to ex-ante uncertainty, i.e., measurements of uncertainty before events have realized. Both chapters complement each other as the first chapter assesses the adverse impact of ex-ante uncertainty on the euro area business cycle, while the second chapter shows that the ECB communication of its assessment of the economic outlook decreases ex-ante uncertainty. The third chapter focuses on the effects of regulatory changes on the investor base of bank debt securities in the euro area. Banking is an area of particular importance for the euro-zone and mitigating the transmission of adverse shocks via the banking sector will benefit the entire area.