Ageing and European labour supply: potential employment gaps and migration

Although age distributions differ between countries, the ageing challenge is apparent everywhere. In the coming decades, average age will increase across Europe. As a consequence, the ratio of the working-age population (age 15-64) to the elderly population will decline, meaning relatively less supply of labour, resulting in a potential employment gap. Though different in magnitude, the ageing effect is clearly present in all countries. If EU-25 employment remains at 63 % (as in 2007) the average employment level will have decreased by 30 million persons in 2050. This effect is relevant to the short-term perspective, as the first post-war birth cohorts are leaving the labour market already.