The War on Ukraine, A Warning from History

Based on the run-up to the Ukraine war and the wars in Yugoslavia in the 1990s, this contribution aims to highlight two points relating to the utility of the past in understanding the future. First, although the past in itself has only limited predictive value, the study of the past and of past conflict may offer insights into the mind-set of today’s actors. As people tend to act according to their beliefs and convictions that are essentially based on an understanding of their personal, and national histories, some courses of action and some outcomes are more likely than others. History can help us imagine what might happen and which dynamics may come into play. Additionally, the study of historical writing, i.e., the interpretation of past events, may identify areas of future conflict. History is replete with overlapping territorial claims and mutually exclusive interpretations and sometimes, under certain conditions, these develop into war. It is proposed that historiographical debates and ‘public history’ could perhaps contribute to an early warning device and reduce strategic surprise, provided that conditions could be identified that trigger their transformation into tools for political mobilisation and war.