Evaluating the strength of evidence of elemental profiling of polymers with LA-ICP-MS

LA-ICP-MS is a powerful technique for obtaining a forensic elemental profile of polymer evidence materials. However, the lack of homogeneous polymer reference standards hampers database creation and reliably matching a sample to a specific source. Therefore, the current study aims to evaluate the strength of evidence of forensic polymer comparisons by applying a matrix-matched reference standard with known concentrations for elements of interest. Four datasets of tapes, electrical wires, tubing, and jerrycans were compiled using LA-ICP-MS. It was found that quantification with the new PVC standard or by simply using the response of one element as internal standard significantly reduced the between-run variation. For each class of polymeric materials, characteristic elements could be identified with PCA and LDA. To facilitate classification, elemental concentrations were found to be typical for specific colors and types of polymeric materials. For forensic comparison, a score-based Bayesian likelihood ratio model and the t-test overlap method performed better than the feature-based model and 4-sigma criterion, in terms of rates of misleading evidence. Normalization to ¹³C and quantification with the PVC standard with and without prior normalization to ¹³C slightly reduced rates of misleading evidence. The t-test method showed an overall average false inclusion rate of only 0.45% and a false exclusion rate of 2.4%. Maximum calibrated likelihood ratios of 0.014 to 1778 were found for the tape dataset. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that with the use of proper standards, quantitative elemental profiling with LA-ICP-MS is a promising tool for forensic classification and comparison of polymers.