The floating vacationer: Destination choices and the gap between plans and behavior

Many studies about travel decision-making are based on consumer choice models that view consumers as rational decision-makers. Well-known examples of such models are the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). These models assume a small gap between intentions and actual behavior. However, these models have been criticized, as quite often intentions do not coincide with actual behavior. This raises the question as to whether there is also a gap between plans and actual behavior in tourist decision-making. The present study addresses this potential gap by investigating vacation intentions and actual vacation behavior across a time period of nine months, as well as the reasons why plans and behavior do not coincide, using a sample which is representative of the Dutch vacationer. The research was limited to destination choice. The main conclusion was that changing a destination was a very frequent phenomenon across the decision period, as 70% of the vacationers changed their plans once or twice between January and the actual summer holiday. The reasons for changing the destination were divided into three categories: fully influenceable reasons (around 25%), partly influenceable reasons (around 25%) and non-influenceable reasons (around 30%). Change behavior occurred most frequently in the younger age segments. These results indicate that there is a substantial gap between intentions and behavior, and care should be exercised when predicting actual vacation behavior using models like TRA or TPB. An implication for marketing efforts is that they should be spread over a considerable time period.