Flexible versus structured support for reasoning: enhancing analytical reasoning through a flexible analytic technique

Authors
  • J. Stromer-Galley
  • P. Rossini
  • K. Kenski
  • B. McKernan
  • B. Clegg
  • J. Folkestad
  • C. Ă˜sterlund
  • L. Schooler
  • O. Boichak
  • J. Canzonetta
  • R.M. Martey
  • C. Pavlich
  • E. Tsetsi ORCID logo
  • N. McCracken
Publication date 2021
Journal Intelligence and National Security
Volume | Issue number 36 | 2
Pages (from-to) 279-298
Organisations
  • Faculty of Social and Behavioural Sciences (FMG) - Amsterdam School of Communication Research (ASCoR)
Abstract

Structured analytic techniques (SATs) help the intelligence community reduce flaws in cognition that lead to faulty reasoning. To ascertain whether SATs provide benefits to reasoning we conducted an experiment within a web-based application, comparing three conditions: 1) unaided reasoning, 2) a prototypical order-based SAT and 3) a flexible, process-based SAT that we call TRACE. Our findings suggest that the more flexible SAT generated higher quality reasoning compared to the other conditions. Consequently, techniques and training that support flexible analytical processes rather than those that require a set sequence of steps may be more beneficial to intelligence analysis and complex reasoning.

Document type Article
Note In special issue: Anatomy of a Controversy: The 2007 Iran Nuclear NIE Revisited.
Language English
Published at https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2020.1841466
Other links https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85095736700
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