The role of external interference in the politicisation of EU integration: Russian influence and the 2024 referendum in Moldova

This article extends politicisation theory by incorporating external interference as a causal factor measured across three dimensions: polarization of opinions, intensity of debate, and public resonance. We develop an ideal-typical causal process of politicization in which authority transfer is the primary driver, conditioned by country-specific economic and cultural contexts, with external interference acting as an intervening variable. Using analyticist process-tracing and a multi-method empirical approach, we examine Russian interference in Moldova’s October 2024 referendum on amending the constitution to designate European integration as an irrevocable national policy. We ask to what extent external interference amplifies political contestation of EU accession in candidate countries. Our findings show that Russian interference intensified an already polarised domestic environment marked by economic and socio-cultural divides, thereby increasing politicisation across all three dimensions. The article contributes to a more nuanced understanding of politicization processes through the inclusion of external actors.