The 2024 US Presidential Election PoSSUM Poll
| Authors |
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|---|---|
| Publication date | 04-2025 |
| Journal | PS - Political Science and Politics |
| Volume | Issue number | 58 | 2 |
| Pages (from-to) | 286-297 |
| Number of pages | 12 |
| Organisations |
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| Abstract |
The initial predictions presented in this article confirm that presidential candidate vote-share estimates based on AI polling are broadly exchangeable with those of other polling organizations. We present our first two biweekly vote-share estimates for the 2024 US presidential election and benchmark them against those being generated by other polling organizations. Our post-Democratic National Convention top-line estimates for Trump (47%) and Harris (46%) closely track measurements generated by other polls during the month of August. The subsequent early September (post-debate) PoSSUM vote-share estimates for Trump (47%) and Harris (48%) again closely track with other national polling being conducted in the United States. An ultimate test for the PoSSUM polling method will be the final preelection vote-share results that we publish before Election Day on November 5, 2024. |
| Document type | Article |
| Note | In special issue: Forecasting the 2024 US Election. |
| Language | English |
| Published at | https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096524000982 |
| Other links | https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85207367625 |
| Downloads |
the-2024-us-presidential-election-possum-poll
(Final published version)
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