Social norms and obesity prevalence: From cohort to system dynamics models

Group‐level obesity can be seen as an emergent property of a complex system, consisting of feedback loops between individual body weight perception, individual weight‐related behaviour and group‐level social norms (a product of group‐level ‘normal' body mass index (BMI) and sociocultural ‘ideal' BMI). As overweight becomes normal, the norm might be counteracting health awareness in shaping individual weight‐related behaviour. System dynamics modelling facilitates understanding and simulating this system's emergent behaviour. We constructed six system dynamics models (SDMs) based on an expert‐informed causal loop diagram and data from six sociocultural groups (Dutch, Moroccan and South‐Asian Surinamese men and women). The SDMs served to explore the effect of three scenarios on group‐level BMI: ‘what if' weight‐related behaviour were driven by (1) health awareness, (2) norms or (3) a combination of the two. Median BMI decreased approximately 50% and 30% less in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively, than in 1. In men, the drop in BMI was approximately two times larger in scenario 1 versus 3, whereas in women, the drop was approximately equal in these scenarios. This study indicates that the overweight norm in men holds group‐level BMI close to overweight despite health awareness. Since norms are counteracting health awareness less strongly in women, other drivers of obesity must be more relevant.