System Initiative Prediction for Multi-turn Conversational Information Seeking

Identifying the right moment for a system to take the initiative is essential to conversational information seeking (CIS). Existing studies have extensively studied the clarification need prediction task, i.e., predicting when to ask a clarifying question, however, it only covers one specific system-initiative action. We define the system initiative prediction (SIP) task as predicting whether a CIS system should take the initiative at the next turn. Our analysis reveals that for effective modeling of SIP, it is crucial to capture dependencies between adjacent user-system initiative-taking decisions. We propose to model SIP by CRFs. Due to their graphical nature, CRFs are effective in capturing such dependencies and have greater transparency than more complex methods, e.g., LLMs. Applying CRFs to SIP comes with two challenges: (i) CRFs need to be given the unobservable system utterance at the next turn, and (ii) they do not explicitly model multi-turn features. We model SIP as an input-incomplete sequence labeling problem and propose a multiturn system initiative predictor (MuSIc) that has (i) prior-posterior inter-utterance encoders to eliminate the need to be given the unobservable system utterance, and (ii) a multi-turn feature-aware CRF layer to incorporate multi-turn features into the dependencies between adjacent initiative-taking decisions. Experiments show that MuSIc outperforms LLM-based baselines including LLaMA, achieving state-of-the-art results on SIP. We also show the benefits of SIP on clarification need prediction and action prediction.