Do Election Pledges Matter? The Effects of Broken and Kept Election Pledges on Citizens’ Trust in Government

The functioning of representative democracy depends on a “responsible electorate” that rewards and punishes parties according to their promises. Holding representatives accountable is the only way for voters to keep control over the government. This article draws on the normative assumption of accountability theory to investigate the impact of information on pledge fulfillment on citizens’ trust in government, taking into account moderators of this relationship. In a two-wave panel experiment (N = 841; broken pledges, fulfilled pledges, control group), results supported the hypotheses that fulfilled election pledges resulted in increased trust in the government, whereas broken pledges decreased trust. However, only when citizens had been satisfied with the government’s performance in the past or when they attributed relevance to governmental pledge fulfillment did trust levels depend on pledge fulfillment. These findings provide insights into the process of democratic accountability and highlight the relevance of trust in studying the effects of election pledges. Additionally, our study makes a case for the use of repeated measurements in experimental research, as examining intraindividual changes can provide a more comprehensive understanding, such as by assessing effect sizes.