Using theory of change to improve post-2020 conservation: a proposed framework and recommendations for use

Contemporary conservation must address social well-being while still protecting biodiversity. Accordingly, the objective of the Convention on Biological Diversity's recent Zero Draft Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework is to sustainably meet the needs of people while reducing biodiversity loss. However, frequent “failures” in achieving this social-ecological balance necessitates more holistic, systematic, and adaptive post-2020 conservation interventions. The Theory of Change (ToC) approach provides a useful and flexible tool to support this endeavor. However, debate persists over its usefulness, and “best” manner of use. This paper explores the elements of, and proposes a framework for developing robust conservation ToC pathways. The framework emphasizes the importance of producing a shared vision of desired results and actions, and associated causal assumptions, among actors. Furthermore, evaluation is considered key to informing required ongoing adaptation to better achieve desired results. The paper also critically explores the challenges associated with ToC, and makes recommendations for its improved use in post-2020 conservation. In particular, we aim to inform the implementation and mainstreaming of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework, especially at a national- and local-level. The framework and discussion should be relevant to a broad range of conservation actors at various scales that must address linked social and ecological objectives.