Birth and evolution of fast radio bursts: Strong population-based evidence for a neutron-star origin

While the appeal of their extraordinary radio luminosity to our curiosity is undiminished, the nature of fast radio bursts (FRBs) has remained unclear. The challenge has been due in part to small sample sizes and limited understanding of telescope selection effects. We here present the first inclusion of the entire set of one-off FRBs from CHIME/FRB Catalog 1 in frbpoppy. Where previous work had to curate this data set, and fit for few model parameters, we have developed full multi-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) capabilities for frbpoppy – the comprehensive, open-science FRB population synthesis code – that allow us to include all one-off CHIME bursts. Through the combination of these two advances we now find the best description of the real, underlying FRB population, with higher confidence than before. We show that 4 ± 3 × 10³ one-off FRBs go off every second between Earth and z = 1; and we provide a mock catalog based on our best model, for straightforward inclusion in other studies. We investigate CHIME side-lobe detection fractions, and FRB luminosity characteristics, to show that some bright, local FRBs are still being missed. We find strong evidence that FRB birth rates evolve with the star formation rate of the Universe, even with a hint of a short (0.1−1 Gyr) delay time. The preferred contribution of the hosts to the FRB dispersion agrees with a progenitor birth location in the host disk. This population-based evidence solidly aligns with magnetar-like burst sources, and we conclude FRBs are emitted by neutron stars.