Fifty years of fiscal planning and implementation in the Netherlands

Using real-time data from the annual budgets over the period 1958-2009, we explore budgetary
planning and implementation in the Netherlands. Three fiscal policy regimes are distinguished. Our
key findings are the following. First, plans are on average unbiased, although they are overoptimistic
during earlier parts of our sample and overly pessimistic during the later parts of our sample, when
revenues are under-projected. Second, general economic conditions and the state of the public
finances are important determinants of both plans and their implementation. Third, this is also the case for political and institutional factors. Expenditure overruns are partly related to political factors,
whereas cautious revenue forecasts relate to the institutional setting. Fourth, under the most recent
regime of "trend-based budgeting" implementation was strongest relative to planning. In fact, this
regime may contain some elements that are useful for designing national fiscal arrangements
elsewhere.