Towards a Better Understanding of Variations in Zero-Shot Neural Machine Translation Performance

Multilingual Neural Machine Translation (MNMT) facilitates knowledge sharing but often suffers from poor zero-shot (ZS) translation qualities. While prior work has explored the causes of overall low zero-shot translation qualities, our work introduces a fresh perspective: the presence of significant variations in zero-shot performance. This suggests that MNMT does not uniformly exhibit poor zero-shot capability; instead, certain translation directions yield reasonable results. Through systematic experimentation, spanning 1,560 language directions across 40 languages, we identify three key factors contributing to high variations in ZS NMT performance: 1) target-side translation quality, 2) vocabulary overlap, and 3) linguistic properties. Our findings highlight that the target side translation quality is the most influential factor, with vocabulary overlap consistently impacting zero-shot capabilities. Additionally, linguistic properties, such as language family and writing system, play a role, particularly with smaller models. Furthermore, we suggest that the off-target issue is a symptom of inadequate performance, emphasizing that zero-shot translation challenges extend beyond addressing the off-target problem. To support future research, we release the data and models as a benchmark for the study of ZS NMT.