Climate vulnerability and the subnational distribution of adaptation funding

Does the subnational distribution of international adaptation funding align with patterns of climate vulnerability within recipient countries? This study addresses this question by first tracking the distribution of adaptation finance from twelve international climate funds across 1358 municipalities in seven countries in Central America and the Caribbean between 2007 and 2022. In doing so, it develops the first systematic dataset tracking subnational adaptation funding across multiple funds, countries, and years. It then maps subnational climate vulnerability using municipal-level indicators of adaptive capacity and sensitivity together with future climate change exposure projections derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs). Finally, it examines the relationship between the distribution of adaptation funding and subnational patterns of climate vulnerability. Results suggest that adaptation funding is positively associated with low adaptive capacity and high sensitivity, whereas projected future exposure to climate change shows no consistent association with funding patterns. These findings suggest a critical blind spot in the distribution of adaptation funding. Exposure is what differentiates climate vulnerability from mere socioeconomic vulnerability, and without its consideration, the most climate-vulnerable communities—those at the intersection of low adaptive capacity, high sensitivity, and high exposure— are less likely to be identified and prioritized for adaptation funding.