Consistent expectations equilibria and complex dynamics in renewable resource markets

Price fluctuations under adaptive learning in renewable resourcemarkets such as fisheries are examined. Optimal fishery managementwith logistic fish population growth implies a backward-bending,discounted supply curve for bioeconomic equilibrium sustained yield.Higher discount rates bend supply backwards more to generate multiplesteady state rational expectations equilibria. Under bounded ra-tionality adaptive learning of a linear forecasting rule generatessteady state, 2-cycle as well as chaotic consistent expectationsequilibria (CEE), which. are self-fulfilling in sample average andautocorrelations. The possibility of "learning to believe in chaos"is robust and even enhanced by dynamic noise.