Individual expectations and aggregate behavior in learning-to-forecast experiments

Open Access
Authors
Publication date 2013
Journal Macroeconomic Dynamics
Volume | Issue number 17 | 2
Pages (from-to) 373-401
Organisations
  • Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB) - Amsterdam School of Economics Research Institute (ASE-RI)
Abstract Models with heterogeneous interacting agents explain macro phenomena through interactions at the micro level. We propose genetic algorithms as a model for individual expectations to explain aggregate market phenomena. The model explains all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations and individual forecasting behaviour in recent learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects (Hommes et al. 2007), simultaneously and across different treatments.
Document type Article
Note Macroeconomic Dynamics, Volume 17, Issue 02, March 2013, pp 373-401. © Cambridge University Press 2011 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1365100511000162.
Language English
Published at https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100511000162
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