Kazakhstan A Possible Future Authoritarian Gravity Center?

The chapter investigates whether Kazakhstan can be perceived as a regional authoritarian gravity center in Central Asia. Using qualitative evidence from a set of interviews collected in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan and process-tracing of a recent conflict between these two countries, it comes to the conclusion that, with a few exceptions, Kazakhstan does not attempt to project its model onto other countries of the region and is not perceived as a role model by other countries. Thus, while appearing to have the potential of becoming a regional authoritarian gravity center (AGC) under certain circumstances, Kazakhstan cannot be considered as one yet. One of the reasons is the specific context of Central Asia, where other authoritarian powers (first and foremost Russia and China) are likely to play a more relevant role in this respect.