Testing contingency hypothesis in budgetary research: an evaluation of the use of moderated regression analysis

In the contingency literature on the behavioral and organizational effects of budgeting, use of the Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) technique is prevalent. This technique is used to test contingency hypotheses that predict interaction effects between budgetary and contextual variables. This paper critically evaluates the application of this technique in budgetary research over the last two decades. The results of the analysis indicate that the use and interpretation of MRA often do not conform to proper methodology and theory. The paper further demonstrates that these problems seriously affect the interpretability and conclusions of individual budgetary research papers, and may also affect the budgetary research paradigm as a whole.