Why calibrating LR-systems is best practice. A reaction to “The evaluation of evidence for microspectrophotometry data using functional data analysis”, in FSI 305

Authors
Publication date 09-2020
Journal Forensic Science International
Article number 110388
Volume | Issue number 314
Number of pages 4
Organisations
  • Faculty of Science (FNWI) - Korteweg-de Vries Institute for Mathematics (KdVI)
Abstract
In their paper “The evaluation of evidence for microspectrophotometry data using functional data analysis”, in FSI 305, Aitken et al. present a likelihood-ratio (LR) system for their data. We show the values generated by this system cannot be interpreted as LRs: they are ill-calibrated and should be interpreted as discriminating scores. We demonstrate how to transform the scores to well-calibrated LRs using a post-hoc calibrating step. Also, we address criticisms of calibration posited by Aitken et al. We conclude by noting that ill-calibrated LR-values are misleadingly small or large. Therefore calibration should be measured and, if necessary, corrected for. The corrected LR-values (instead of the discriminating scores) can be used to update the prior odds in Bayes rule.
Document type Article
Language English
Published at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forsciint.2020.110388
Other links https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85087649489
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