Populism Versus Nativism Socio-Economic, Socio-Cultural, and Emotional Predictors

Previous research on predictors of populism and nativism has predominantly focused on socio-economic (e.g., education, employment, social status), and socio-cultural explanations (e.g., social identity and social status). In recent years, however, the role of negative emotions has become increasingly important in the study of populism and related concepts. In the current study, we examined two distinct negative emotions: anxiety and anger. We collected survey data from participants in 15 European countries (N = 7,726) and tested three sets of measures reflecting different explanations, economic (e.g., education), socio-cultural (e.g., social identity), and emotional in predicting populist attitudes (compromising items on anti-elitism and people-centrism) and nativism. We tested these different predictors using structural equation modeling (SEM). The results of our basic SEM models show that negative emotions (anxiety and anger) predict both populist attitudes (people-centrism and anti-elitism) and nativism. In particular, anxiety predicts anger, which in turn predicts both populist attitudes and nativism. In our advanced SEM models, people-centrism was predicted by anger and social identity, whereas nativism was predicted by anger, anxiety, social identity, and education. Our study shows that negative emotions (anger, anxiety) are much better predictors of populist attitudes and nativism than mere socio-economic and socio-cultural factors.