Coronavirus: an unwelcome guest at a bad time

The coronavirus outbreak arrives at a time when global growth is already expected to slow and negatively impacts growth and insolvencies.

- The coronavirus outbreak slows in China and accelerates in the rest of the world, especially South Korea and Italy.
- Our baseline 'Contained' scenario is based on the SARS experience and assumes the outbreak is relatively short lived.
- The impact on the global economy in 2020 will be relatively mild but comes at a time of the lowest GDP growth since the financial crisis.
- The trend of increasing global insolvencies will be reinforced.