- The price of oil dependency: Dutch disease in Russian regions
- Number of pages
- Amsterdam: SEO
- SEO Discussion Paper
- Volume | Edition (Serie)
- Document type
- Working paper
- Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB)
- Amsterdam School of Economics Research Institute (ASE-RI)
This paper investigates the extent to which the Russian economy suffers from Dutch Disease, and to what extent oil-dependent Russian regions are more prone to the symptoms. We first summarize the main Dutch Disease model and its key predictions. We subsequently test these predictions and find evidence of the key 3 symptoms: real exchange rate appreciation, de-industrialization, and a services sector boom. We find that Russia’s oil dependency has carried a price. First, based on cointegration estimates, we find that changes in the oil price have had a strong and robust effect on the Russian real exchange rate, and have thereby reduced the competitiveness of non-oil exports during times of high oil prices. Second, based on cross-section regressions for 77 Russian regions, we find that, the more dependent a Russian region is on oil, the more prone to Dutch Disease it is. We end with some policy recommendations to reduce the impact of Dutch Disease.
- December 2015, preliminary draft
The price of oil dependency: Dutch disease in Russian regions: preliminary draft (Embargo until 01 January 2020)
If you believe that digital publication of certain material infringes any of your rights or (privacy) interests, please let the Library know, stating your reasons. In case of a legitimate complaint, the Library will make the material inaccessible and/or remove it from the website. Please Ask the Library, or send a letter to: Library of the University of Amsterdam, Secretariat, Singel 425, 1012 WP Amsterdam, The Netherlands. You will be contacted as soon as possible.