- Knowledge-generating efficiency in innovation systems: the acceleration of technological paradigm changes with increasing complexity
- Technological Forecasting & Social Change
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- Document type
- Faculty of Social and Behavioural Sciences (FMG)
- Amsterdam School of Communication Research (ASCoR)
Time series of US patents per million inhabitants show cyclic structures which can be attributed to the different knowledge-generating paradigms that drive innovation systems. The changes in the slopes between the waves can be used to indicate efficiencies in the generation of knowledge. When knowledge-generating systems are associated with idem innovation systems, the efficiency of the latter can be modeled in terms of interactions among dimensions (for example, in terms of university-industry-government relations). The resulting model predicts an increase in efficiency with an increasing number of dimensions due to the effects of self-organization among them. The dynamics of the knowledge-generating cycles can be analyzed in terms of Fibonacci numbers; successive cycles are expected to exhibit shorter life cycles than previous ones. This perspective enables us to forecast the expected dates of future paradigm changes.
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