H.L.F. de Groot
- Do floods have permanent effects? Evidence from the Netherlands
- Journal of Regional Science
- Volume | Issue number
- 54 | 3
- Pages (from-to)
- Document type
- Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB)
- Amsterdam Business School Research Institute (ABS-RI)
This study investigates the short- and long-run impact on population dynamics of the major flood in the Netherlands in 1953. A dynamic difference-in-differences analysis reveals that the flood had an immediate negative impact on population growth, but limited long-term effects. In contrast, the resulting flood protection program (Deltaworks), had a persisting positive effect on population growth. As a result, there has been an increase in population in flood-prone areas. Our results suggest a moral hazard effect of flood mitigation leading to more people locating in flood-prone areas, increasing potential disaster costs.
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