- Learning to forecast: Genetic algorithms and experiments
- Award date
- 11 November 2014
- Number of pages
- Amsterdam: Tinbergen Institute
- Document type
- PhD thesis
- Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB)
- Amsterdam School of Economics Research Institute (ASE-RI)
The central question that this thesis addresses is how economic agents learn to form price expectations, which are a crucial element of macroeconomic and financial models. The thesis applies a Genetic Algorithms model of learning to previous laboratory experiments, explaining the observed heterogeneity of individual forecasting behavior. It also studies the effect of information networks in this model, showing that information sharing may lead to more volatile price dynamics. Finally, the thesis reports on an experiment in which subjects either trade an asset or predict its price. The former turns out to be more difficult for the subjects than the forecasting task, which leads to repeated price bubbles.
- Research conducted at: Universiteit van Amsterdam
Series: Tinbergen Institute research series 597
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