- Vote recall: a panel study on the mechanisms that explain vote recall inconsistency
- International Journal of Public Opinion Research
- Volume | Issue number
- 26 | 1
- Pages (from-to)
- Document type
- Faculty of Social and Behavioural Sciences (FMG)
- Amsterdam Institute for Social Science Research (AISSR)
Voters’ recall of past behavior is known to be inaccurate. Yet, owing to data limitations, the precise mechanisms behind recall inconsistency have not yet been pulled apart empirically. We analyze the Dutch 1VOP panel data set (29,955 respondents, 53 waves) to simultaneously test four explanations of recall inconsistency. We conclude that vote recall is explained by forgetfulness, nonattitudes, and cognitive bias, but find no evidence for measurement bias. Recall consistency is affected by current party preference and by volatility in party preferences. Both effects become stronger with longer time intervals between recalls. We discuss the implications for (cross-national) survey research methodology and for substantive research on electoral volatility and offer tentative solutions against the resulting validity, reliability, and equivalence issues.
- go to publisher's site
If you believe that digital publication of certain material infringes any of your rights or (privacy) interests, please let the Library know, stating your reasons. In case of a legitimate complaint, the Library will make the material inaccessible and/or remove it from the website. Please Ask the Library, or send a letter to: Library of the University of Amsterdam, Secretariat, Singel 425, 1012 WP Amsterdam, The Netherlands. You will be contacted as soon as possible.