C. van Ewijk
- Debt crises forewarned: stochastics matter: an early-warning indicator for dubt sustainability
- VOX : Research-based Policy Analysis and Commentary from leading Economists
- Volume | Issue number
- 2013 | 28-11-2013
- Document type
- Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB)
- Amsterdam School of Economics Research Institute (ASE-RI)
- The sustainability of government debt cannot be determined with certainty. This column presents an early warning indicator to predict sovereign debt crises using a stochastic simulation framework. What counts is the risk of a significant rise in public debt, more so than the expected evolution of the debt level. A key determinant of the indicator is the quality of budgetary policies in controlling the government budget in the event of adverse shocks.
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