- Individual expectations and aggregate behavior in learning-to-forecast experiments
- Macroeconomic Dynamics
- Volume | Issue number
- 17 | 2
- Pages (from-to)
- Document type
- Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB)
- Amsterdam School of Economics Research Institute (ASE-RI)
- Models with heterogeneous interacting agents explain macro phenomena through interactions at the micro level. We propose genetic algorithms as a model for individual expectations to explain aggregate market phenomena. The model explains all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations and individual forecasting behaviour in recent learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects (Hommes et al. 2007), simultaneously and across different treatments.
- go to publisher's site
- Macroeconomic Dynamics, Volume 17, Issue 02, March 2013, pp 373-401. © Cambridge University Press 2011 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1365100511000162.
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