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Author
M. Belot
V. Bhaskar
J. van de Ven
Year
2012
Title
Can observers predict trustworthiness?
Journal
Review of Economics and Statistics
Volume | Issue number
94 | 1
Pages (from-to)
246-259
Document type
Article
Faculty
Interfacultary Research Institutes
Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB)
Institute
Amsterdam Center for Law & Economics (ACLE)
Amsterdam School of Economics Research Institute (ASE-RI)
Abstract
We investigate whether experimental subjects can predict behavior in a prisoner's dilemma played on a TV show. Subjects report probabilistic beliefs that a player cooperates, before and after the players communicate. Subjects correctly predict that women and players who make a voluntary promise are more likely to cooperate. They are able to distinguish truth from lies when a player is asked about her intentions by the host. Subjects are to some extent able to predict behavior; their beliefs are 7~percentage points higher for cooperators than for defectors. We also study their Bayesian updating. Beliefs do not satisfy the martingale property and display mean reversion.
URL
go to publisher's site
Language
English
Permalink
http://hdl.handle.net/11245/1.378312
Downloads
  • 378312.pdf

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