- Author
- Year
- 2012
- Title
- Can observers predict trustworthiness?
- Journal
- Review of Economics and Statistics
- Volume | Issue number
- 94 | 1
- Pages (from-to)
- 246-259
- Document type
- Article
- Faculty
- Interfacultary Research Institutes
Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB) - Institute
- Amsterdam Center for Law & Economics (ACLE)
Amsterdam School of Economics Research Institute (ASE-RI) - Abstract
-
We investigate whether experimental subjects can predict behavior in a prisoner's dilemma played on a TV show. Subjects report probabilistic beliefs that a player cooperates, before and after the players communicate. Subjects correctly predict that women and players who make a voluntary promise are more likely to cooperate. They are able to distinguish truth from lies when a player is asked about her intentions by the host. Subjects are to some extent able to predict behavior; their beliefs are 7~percentage points higher for cooperators than for defectors. We also study their Bayesian updating. Beliefs do not satisfy the martingale property and display mean reversion.
- URL
- go to publisher's site
- Language
- English
- Permalink
- http://hdl.handle.net/11245/1.378312
- Downloads
Disclaimer/Complaints regulations
If you believe that digital publication of certain material infringes any of your rights or (privacy) interests, please let the Library know, stating your reasons. In case of a legitimate complaint, the Library will make the material inaccessible and/or remove it from the website. Please Ask the Library, or send a letter to: Library of the University of Amsterdam, Secretariat, Singel 425, 1012 WP Amsterdam, The Netherlands. You will be contacted as soon as possible.