UvA

This paper develops a Markov-Switching vector autoregressive model that allows for imperfect synchronization of cyclical regimes in multiple variables, due to phase shifts of a single common cycle. The model has three key features: (i) the amount of phase shift can be different across regimes (as well as across variables), (ii) it allows the cycle to consist of any number of regimes
J ≥ 2, and (iii) it allows for regime-dependent volatilities and correlations. In an empirical application to monthly returns on size-based stock portfolios, a three-regime model with asymmetric phase shifts and regime-dependent heteroscedasticity is found to characterize the joint distribution of returns most adequately. While large- and small-cap portfolios switch contemporaneously into boom and crash regimes, the large-cap portfolio leads the small-cap portfolio for switches to a moderate regime by a month.