- Do perceived poll results affect party preferences, or do party preferences affect perceived poll results?
- Conference papers: International Communication Association: annual meeting
- Document type
- Faculty of Social and Behavioural Sciences (FMG)
- Amsterdam School of Communication Research (ASCoR)
It is well established in the literature that a party’s perceived standing in the polls affects voters’ probability to vote for that party. However, do voters perceive a parties’ poll performance in accurate ways, or is there a nonrandom error to poll perceptions? In this paper, we argue that poll perceptions are systematically biased. On the basis of data from a voter survey conducted in four countries (N=22,504) we find for most parties an interplay of poll perceptions and probabilities to vote. Indeed, we more often find probabilities to vote influencing poll perceptions than vice versa. This bias tends to be larger among the lower-educated, and among the less knowledgeable. We conclude by setting our findings in wider perspective and discussing the relevance to the research field, and society more generally.
- Preprint with title: What you see is what you hope you get: do perceived poll results affect party preferences, or do party
preferences affect perceived poll results?
Proceedings title: Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Communication Association, TBA, Boston, MA, May 25, 2011
Publisher: International Communication Association
Place of publication: Washington, DC
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