S. van Wijnbergen
- "How to" of fiscal sustainability in oil-rich countries: the case of Azerbaijan
- the Banca d’Italia Public Finance workshop '' Fiscal Sustainability: Analytical Developments and Emerging Policy Issues''
- Book/source title
- Proceedings of the Banca d’Italia Public Finance workshop '' Fiscal Sustainability: Analytical Developments and Emerging Policy Issues''
- Pages (from-to)
- Roma: Bank of Italy
- Document type
- Conference contribution
- Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB)
- Amsterdam School of Economics Research Institute (ASE-RI)
Assessing fiscal sustainability - i.e. considering whether or not a country can maintain its
current fiscal policies without running into solvency problems and possible default - requires projections on a government’s future revenue stream, expenditures and contingent liabilities within a macroeconomic framework. Such an exercise is always subject to uncertainty. In commodity-rich countries dependent upon resource revenues, this is intensified by unpredictable and volatile commodity prices. We apply the Framework for Fiscal Sustainability and Managing Uncertainty to Azerbaijan: we explore the link between non-oil primary deficit and Oil Fund allocation rules and assess their impact on fiscal sustainability in Azerbaijan and allow for explicit analysis of the effects of uncertainty through scenario analysis and full stochastic analysis allowing Value-at-Risk
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