- Individual expectations and aggregate behavior in learning to forecast experiments
- CeNDEF Working Paper University of Amsterdam
- Number of pages
- Universiteit van Amsterdam
- Document type
- Working paper
- Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB)
- Amsterdam School of Economics Research Institute (ASE-RI)
- Models with heterogeneous interacting agents explain macro phenomena through interactions at the micro level. We propose genetic
algorithms as a model for individual expectations to explain aggregate market phenomena. The model explains
all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations and individual forecasting behaviour in recent learning to forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects (Hommes et al. 2007), simultaneously and across different treatments.
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