- Trade spill-overs of fiscal policy in the European Union: a panel analysis
- Number of pages
- Amsterdam: Faculteit Economie en Bedrijfskunde
- Document type
- Working paper
- Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB)
- Amsterdam School of Economics Research Institute (ASE-RI)
We explore the international spill-overs from fiscal policy shocks via trade in Europe. A fiscal expansion stimulates domestic activity, which leads to more foreign exports and, hence, higher foreign output. To quantify this, we combine a panel VAR model in government spending, net taxes and GDP with a panel trade model. We find statistically significant spill-overs. Our baseline estimates imply that, on average, over the first two years a German public spending increase equal to 1% of GDP implies an average foreign exports gain of 2.2% of its annual level. The corresponding figure for an equal-size net tax reduction is 0.8%. As far as the direct effect of enhanced exports on foreign activity is concerned, the corresponding average gains from the two shocks are, respectively, 0.13% and 0.07% of annual GDP. Of course, these numbers are (substantially) smaller when the fiscal shock originates from smaller EU countries.
- Gebeurtenis: Paper presented at the 43rd Panel Meeting of Economic Policy in Vienna
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