University of AmsterdamUniversity of AmsterdamUvA

  • Terms of use
  • Contact

UvA-DARE (Digital Academic Repository)

  • Home
  • Advanced Search
  • Browse
  • My selection

Search UvA-DARE

Author
R. Teulings
Date
2-8-2017
Title
Brexit and The Impact of Gradual Economic Integration on Export
Publisher
Amsterdam: Tinbergen Institute
Serie
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers: Tinbergen Institute
Volume | Edition (Serie)
17-075/VI
Document type
Working paper
Faculty
Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB)
Institute
Amsterdam School of Economics Research Institute (ASE-RI)
Abstract
I develop an index for economic integration accounting for its gradual and bilateral nature: the Gradual And Bilateral Integration (GABI) index. The graduality captures differences in the depth and path of five stages in economic integration and is an improvement over the use of binary dummy variables. Its bilateral nature allows for country-pair differences, which is not possible with the multilateral indexes in existing literature. I apply the GABI index to a gravity model for 18 OECD countries and estimate the impact of the five stages on export. The estimates for these five stages allow me to investigate four different Brexit scenarios in a general equilibrium analysis, ranging from soft to very hard Brexit. I find that in the latter scenario real export of the UK decreases by a significant 32% in the long run. Other EU countries also experience a decrease in real export, while non-EU countries experience an increase due to trade diversion effects. Similarly, I also investigate potential future free trade agreements like TTIP.
Link
Submitted manuscript
Language
English
Permalink
http://hdl.handle.net/11245.1/15bb6d19-1087-4bbb-8f76-6132bf3b6208
Downloads
  • Brexit

Disclaimer/Complaints regulations

If you believe that digital publication of certain material infringes any of your rights or (privacy) interests, please let the Library know, stating your reasons. In case of a legitimate complaint, the Library will make the material inaccessible and/or remove it from the website. Please Ask the Library, or send a letter to: Library of the University of Amsterdam, Secretariat, Singel 425, 1012 WP Amsterdam, The Netherlands. You will be contacted as soon as possible.

PrintPrint this pageShareShare via emailShare on facebookShare on linkedinShare on twitter
  • University library
  • About UvA-DARE
  • Disclaimer
Copyright UvA 2014