- C.J. Nagelkerke
- Modelling the effect of climate change on species ranges
- Levende Natuur
- Publication Year
- 114 - 118
- Document type
- article in journal
- Faculty of Science
- Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics (IBED)
Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics (IBED)
Three main types of models can be used to understand and predict climate-related range shifts. Equilibrium models predict potential future distributions from the current climate envelope of a species, but do not take migration constraints into account. They show that future range changes can be large. Migration models investigate migration speeds on the front edge of a range after a stepped climate change, but are difficult to parameterize because past, current and future migration processes are not well understood. New, dynamic profile models focus on the influence a shifting climate has on processes on both the advancing and the retreating range edge. They reveal that the tracking delays developing at the two edges are very much influenced by the way climate actually affects (meta)population dynamics. Due to various uncertainties none of the models can be used to accurately predict future ranges. However, useful qualitative inferences are possible. For example, it appears that habitat destruction greatly increases the deleterious effects of climate change. .
If you believe that digital publication of certain material infringes any of your rights or (privacy) interests, please let the University Library know, stating your reasons. In case of a legitimate complaint the University Library will make the material inaccessible and/or remove it from the website. Please send an e-mail to: firstname.lastname@example.org, or a letter to: Bibliotheek van de Universiteit van Amsterdam, Dept. Electronic Services, UvA-DARE, Singel 425, 1012 WP Amsterdam, The Netherlands. You will be contacted as soon as possible.