Zoekopdracht:
faculteit: "FEB" en publicatiejaar: "2009"
| Auteurs | M. Anufriev, C. Hommes | | Titel | Evolutionary selection of individual expectations and aggregate outcomes |
| Jaar | 2009 |
| Pagina's | 40 |
| Serietitel | CeNDEF Working Paper University of Amsterdam |
| Serienummer | 09-09 |
| Faculteit | Faculteit Economie en Bedrijfskunde |
| Instituut/afd. | FEB: Research Institute in Economics and Econometrics Amsterdam (RESAM) |
| Samenvatting | In recent 'learning to forecast' experiments with human subjects (Hommes, et al. 2005),
three different patterns in aggregate asset price behavior have been observed: slow mono-
tonic convergence, permanent oscillations and dampened fluctuations. We construct a
simple model of individual learning, based on performance based evolutionary selection
or reinforcement learning among heterogeneous expectations rules, explaining these dif-
ferent aggregate outcomes. Out-of-sample predictive power of our switching model is
higher compared to the rational or other homogeneous expectations benchmarks. Our
results show that heterogeneity in expectations is crucial to describe individual forecast-
ing behavior as well as aggregate price behavior. |
| Soort document | Rapport |
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