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Query: faculty: "FEB" and publication year: "2011"

AuthorsC. Cakmakli, R. Paap, D. van Dijk
TitleMeasuring and predicting heterogeneous recessions
PublisherTinbergen Institute
PlaceAmsterdam/Rotterdam
Year2011
Pages56
Title seriesTinbergen Institute Discussion Paper
Series numberTI2011-154/4
FacultyFaculty of Economics and Business
Institute/dept.FEB: Amsterdam School of Economics Research Institute (ASE-RI)
AbstractThis paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with ‘mild’ and ‘severe’ recessions. All downturns start with a mild decline in the level of economic activity. Contractions that
develop into severe recessions mostly correspond with periods of substantial credit squeezes as suggested by the ‘financial accelerator’ theory. Multivariate Markov-switching models that allow for phase shifts between the cyclical regimes of industrial production and the Conference Board Leading Economic Index confirm these findings.
Document typeReport
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